Busy
Atlantic hurricane season forecast
Source: CNN
 MIAMI,
Florida (CNN) -- The National Hurricane Center's latest forecast
for the 2006 season calls for more Atlantic hurricanes than usual,
but not as many as seen over the past three years and fewer than
predicted in the NHC's initial estimate in May.
NHC director Max Mayfield
said he expects 12 to 15 named storms, with seven to nine gaining
hurricane status. Of those, three or four will grow to Category
3 strength or greater, Mayfield said.
A Category 3 hurricane
is classified as a major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale,
with sustained winds of 110 mph or more.
The 2005 season saw
a record 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes. Three named
storms had been recorded by mid-August 2006.
Early to middle September
is considered the peak of the season that runs from June 1 to
the end of October.
Gerry Bell, lead forecaster
for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said
water temperatures, wind patterns and other factors that guide
storm development are not the same as a year ago.
"The combination
of climate factors that would normally produce an extremely active
season that were in place for the last three years, those factors
have dissipated," he said.
An active hurricane
era began in 1995 and should last about 25 years, Bell said. (See
where hurricanes have hit most often)
"Since '95, nine
of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal and this
year will probably make it 10 out of the last 12," he said.
The 25 years leading
to 1995 saw a below-average cycle, with only three hurricane seasons
above normal, he said.
Bell said global warming
was important but there was no conclusive evidence that the "greenhouse
effect" caused the current string of overactive hurricane
seasons.
"The jury is still
out and a lot of work is being done now to try and establish whether
there are real global trends," Bell said.
Mayfield said he remains
concerned about a lack of awareness and preparedness among Americans
living in areas vulnerable to hurricanes.
He quoted a survey
of people living along the United States coastline from Texas
to Maine that found more than half do not feel vulnerable to hurricanes
nor have a family disaster plan or hurricane survival kit.
Mayfield said history
shows "people who had a hurricane plan did a lot better than
those who did not have a plan." (Tips for being prepared)
Another noted forecast
-- prepared by a Colorado State University research team -- also
was recently revised and is almost identical to the one just issued
by the NHC.
Source: http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/05/22/2006.hurricane.season/index.html
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